DC-1: Mercedes Belda Ley

Contact

E-mail: mbele@kt.dtu.dk
LinkedIn

Project

Advanced sensitivity analysis and comprehensive validation methodology to improve credibility of QRAs studies in chemical process industries

Host organization

DTU

Supervisors

Prof. Gürkan Sin (Main, DTU); Prof. Elsa Pastor (co-supervisor, UPC)

Duration

36 months 

Objectives

The overall objective is to advance the rigor and reliability of QRA studies for estimating various risk criteria that form the basis for decision-making for project investments and regulatory requirements of risk tolerance limits. An efficient methodology is developed and validated to predict and propagate the model output uncertainty in risk criteria estimation in QRA.

The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis methodology research will take place at DTU, and the application and refinement of the methodology at UPC and RISKTEC with the urea case studies.

Expected results

  1. Identification of lack of data and improvement of the database of incident frequencies useful for QRA validation,
  2. A comprehensive uncertainty analysis methodology (Monte-Carlo technique) tailed for the QRA studies,
  3. Application and benchmarking of global sensitivity analysis (Morris, Sobol) to identify the most critical assumptions and simplify the QRA analysis,
  4. Evaluation of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis on several QRA case studies together with industrial partners.

Planned secondments 

  1. RISKTEC, M12, 3 months: Application of the methodology to quantify the uncertainty of QRA
  2. UPC, M24, 2 months: Training on harmonized methodology for efficiency and consistent QRA studies