DC-5: Lorenza Saturnino

Contact

E-mail: lorenza.saturnino@novotec.es

💼 LinkedIn

Project

Framework development for benchmark analysis and selection of QRA methodologies and consequence models

Host Organization

NOVOTEC

Supervisors

Prof. Eulàlia Planas (Main, UPC); Dr. Miguel Muñoz (co-supervisor, NOVOTEC) 

Objectives

The project will be carried out by achieving the following objectives:

  • Conducting a comprehensive review about methodologies and software commonly used for modelling major accidents and performing QRA.
  • Developing metrics to benchmark models and methodologies, considering the availability or absence of experimental data.
  • Comparing methodologies and models, with a particular focus on relevant cases involving LNG, ammonia, methanol, and hydrogen.

Project Description

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) is a formal and systematic approach used to quantify the overall risk of a process or system and to identify the specific factors contributing to that risk. QRA relies on determining the probability of failure combined with the consequences of that failure. Errors in estimating probabilities and/or consequences directly lead to inaccuracies in the overall risk estimation.

To model the consequences and effects of accidental scenarios, integral models are widely used due to their simplicity and low computational demands. Numerous software tools are available for conducting consequence analyses, each utilizing different models to simulate the release, dispersion, radiation, and overpressure resulting from a loss-of-containment event involving specific substances under particular pressure and temperature conditions. Additionally, various methodologies and approaches can be applied to conduct QRA studies, which may differ in the selection of equipment to be analyzed, the initiating events considered, the event trees constructed, and the associated probabilities assigned.

This project (ProSafe DC-5) aims to develop a robust framework for benchmarking and selecting QRA methodologies and consequence models. Its primary objective is to evaluate and compare these methods and models from both practical and scientific perspectives. This comparison will facilitate the identification and selection of models and methodologies that ensure risk assessments are reliable, accurate, and practically applicable to real-world scenarios.

The ultimate goal of this research is to establish a well-defined benchmarking methodology that can be consistently applied across EU Member States. By doing so, the project seeks to promote standardization and enhance the quality of risk assessments within the context of the EU.

Relevant Background

  • B.Sc.: Bachelor’s Degree in Chemical and Food Engineering, Politecnico di Torino, 2019-2022
  • M.Sc.: Master’s Degree in Chemical and Sustainable Processes Engineering, Politecnico di Torino, 2022-2024
  • Erasmus Exchange Programme at Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, 09/2023-07/2024 (Spain)